A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
